Posted May 21, 2008 at 08:56AM by Glen D. Listed in: Global Warming, Weather Tags: MIT, global warming
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hurricane - Image 1There's been a somewhat clear consensus over the past few years that global warming is related to the rise in storms we're currently experiencing. The common belief was once that hotter temperatures heat up the oceans more, thereby fueling hurricanes across the Atlantic. One former proponent of that theory now goes against it after he concluded his latest study.

Research meteorologist Tom Knutson explains that through a computer model that simulates, observes, and predicts weather patterns in multi-decade cycles, he was able to conclude that the current storm barrage  experienced is but a phase. He says he expects hurricanes hitting the US and neighboring countries to decline by 30 percent in the next few years.

Knutson also said that in general, the Atlantic will see 18 percent fewer hurricanes in the years to come. More encouraging is his prediction that storms exceeding 110 mph will fall by eight percent in frequency in the same period.

However, Knutson did concede that storms will be wetter from here on out. An increase of 37 percent in rainfall within 30 miles of hurricanes is to be expected.

Not everyone, though, is convinced. Kerry Emanuel, a meteorologist at MIT, says he has respect for Knutson as a scientist, but pointed out that his counterpart's conclusions are "demonstrably wrong"  based on a model that is flawed.

Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth agrees. He says that Knutson's program is poor at assessing storms, thereby not looking properly at storms and how they behave. Knutson, for his part, remains adamant that he's right. We'll keep you posted for more on this simmering debate.

[Via Associated Press] Permalink  |   Email this  |   Linking Blogs   |   Digg It!

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